In the December 2025 edition of the Ontario Landowners Newsletter, I warned Ontarians about Mark Carney’s plan to make it easier to expropriate land for a high speed rail line from Quebec City to Toronto. Included in the Liberal Budget Implementation Act are amendments to the Expropriation Act to prevent landowners from challenging the seizure of their land. The bill would also allow the Liberals’ new Crown Corporation, Alto, to effectively place a freeze on your property until the company decides if it truly requires your land. Under this freeze, property owners would be prevented from developing their property.
Since the release of the Budget there have been two developments. The first is the launch of public consultations by Alto. The second is a market survey by the University of McGill.
The consultations have provided Canadians with a look at the proposed corridor for the rail line.
Below is an overlay of the corridor onto an Eastern Ontario map from Elections Canada.
We do not know the extent to which Alto plans on applying its power to freeze development along the corridor. To prevent property speculation, the Liberals may try to freeze first, then sort out the specific location for the final proposed rail line.
Along with the release of map, McGill University has released a market survey to estimate ridership and potential revenues. The results are troubling. The study found that as few as 11,000 Canadians living in Quebec City, Montreal, Trois Rivers, Ottawa, Peterborough, and Toronto would use the train each day. The region covered by the train has a population of 13,000,000.
More troubling than low ridership numbers is Canadians’ willingness to pay. For a trip from Toronto to Montreal, the survey found Canadians would be willing to pay $101 for a one-way ticket. For comparison, a one-way high-speed train ticket for a similar distance in France would cost $300 CAD. The study found that at a ticket price of $120, and with no drop in ridership from the estimated 11,000 daily passengers, high-speed rail will require over $60 billion in public subsides over the first 47 years of operation.
The study also provided additional estimates:
- $79 billion for construction
- $4.8 billion for trains
- $5 billion for expropriation.
Given the expense of construction, and the Carney Liberals out-of-control spending, and massive deficits, it is unlikely this project will ever begin construction. The Liberals will still seize the land. It just won’t be used for a rail line. Instead, they will keep the land until they can quietly turn it into a protected wildlife corridor as part of their commitment to restore 30% of Canada’s developed land by 2030.